Apologies.......and Week 22

Sorry for the lack of posting lately, I've been on a short vacation in Las Vegas (it was awesome). I barely managed to get my week 21 line-up - I was forced to use both the hotel internet access station at a extortionate price of $0.70 a minute (!!!) and an internet cafe. This did not permit much time for match preview and injury news surfing. But my choices did not suffer too badly as a result as the first part of the week went reasonably well, with Ronaldo and Benni McCarthy doing the business for me. C-Ron had a monster game (2G, 1A, 4SOT, 5CW, 3SC!!!), but he's been a no-brainer pick for pretty much all season long. Downing was a let-down and it figures that the very first time I select Ashley Young, his game gets abandoned due to a water-logged pitch. Hopefully the second batch of games turns out a little better.

[Also note that in Week 23, Watford face Blackburn in a midweek game, giving them a double week...Young, McCarthy, Bentley, Friedel should be in your reckoning. But more on that later...]

Looking ahead to the week 21:
Though there is a break before the next Yahoo slate of fixtures, it's never too early to begin thinking about match-ups. At first glance, a few games stand out -

Chelsea v. Wigan
ManU v. Villa
Spurs v. Newcastle
--> all three of these games feature stronger teams facing mid-table opposition that have been struggling lately. By no means will these games be easy wins, but they should favour the home sides against teams that have gone off the boil lately. You're out of luck if you don't have Ronaldo in your side cheaply, as his explosive form has caused his price to skyrocket (25 units !!!!). Solskjaer has been hot upon his return to the side, and Saha has spent some time on the bench. Vidic is still reasonably priced. Berbatov, Chimbonda and Huddlestone are about the only Spurs I would consider, though NUFC has been giving up goals lately. And all the desirable Chelsea players (Lamps, Drog) are pricy. Ash Cole or even a dirt cheap Boulahrouz (sub-4 units) may be worth a punt, though Chelski haven't been even close to a clean sheet since Terry went out 4 games ago.

Liverpool @ Watford
Fulham @ West Ham
--> picks from the away teams are a little more hit-or-miss. It would seem like an ideal chance for Gerrard or Kuyt to really break out offensively, but they've been off the pace lately. Garcia, the match winner of the past weekend, is nicely priced at a pre-update of 8.xx, but he is always subject to a rotation or poor outing. However, Reina would seem like a decent bet for a CS & win, but be warned - in typical Liverpool style, they don't give up many shots, so if he concedes, there won't be many saves to counter it (esp. against shot-shy Watford). Unfortunately, there's no "sure thing" for YFF points in the Fulham roster, as even McBride is inconsistent and has really down weeks between the good scoring ones. Volz has been playing MF lately (listed as a defender, though costly at 10+), and Routledge has been the primary set-piece taker in the stead of injured Claus Jensen.

Overvalued?

To every successful bargain-bin pick (see previous entry), there is usually a flip side. In this double week, my "big guns" of Gerrard and Downing were fairly anonymous. Despite good match-ups and good form, they both failed to deliver the goods I expected, especially given the cost. No goals and barely a shot on target between them. Disappointing.
[Luckily, some of my other selections picked up the slack...]

But it goes to show that some week, YFF picking is a real crap shoot and you need a bit of luck. All the analyzing, statistical comparison and common sense won't account for the fickle football gods...

Enjoy the holidays!

Bargain Bin Jackpot

Two weeks ago, I picked up Kieron Dyer. I was in need of a cheapie filler in the mdifield and he was due to be back from a 2-game layoff with a gashed leg. He's been injury prone throughout his career, but the gaffer really seems to fancy him, as he provides some paces and attacking impetus in and advanced MF role. Plus he was tipped to start. It fit my bill perfectly, especially at the budget price of 4.94 (which allowed me to grab some more expensive "big names" in my starting XI).

Well, I couldn't be more thrilled and surprised with his YFF contribution since. He's started all 3 games since I picked him (a genuine plus for a filler!). With this current form, I think he's installed himself as and almost automatic selection, fitness permitting. First match, he returned 8 points on 1 SOT and a couple of corners won. In this double week, he's scored TWICE!! I can hardly believe it really. Nothing fancy, YFF score-wise, 1 SOT 1 goal, 10-point type returns per match, but considering my outlay and the few managers out there that have him, it's great! Put another way, my return on investment has been huge. Thanks Kieron, keep it up ;)

Week 20 - Initial Thoughts

Though there are a raft of Boxing Day games left to play, it's time to starting thinking about the forthcoming week 20. It is YET ANOTHER double week, with every team having two matches; this makes four matches in 9-10 days, and squad rotation becomes an even greater possibility.

To start you thinking about week 20, as it may be hectic this week, here are some of the more favourable match-ups, in my estimation.

Arsenal - @ SHEF, CHAR --> RVP/Fab/defender?/Lehmann again seems like a solid bet at 2 wins and CA chances.
ManU - RED, @ NUFC --> usual suspects (Ronaldo, Saha), but a pre-update Vidic would look nice.
Boro - @ Bburn, SHEF --> riskier picks based on inconsistent Boro form, but Downing & maybe Yak/Viduka??
ManCity - @ Wham, EVE --> Barton (if not suspended), and maybe Trabelsi
Chelsea - NUFC, @ AST --> players are expensive.
And Watford plays Wigan and @ Fulham - so maybe Ashley Young comes into the frame, though his teams unimaginative direct style does not help him.
Everton defenders like Naysmith or Lescott could be worth a punt...

Finally....

Picked one right! About an hour before the deadline this morning, I decided, after much trepidation, that I would insert Anelka rather than Garcia. And boy am I glad I did! Thx for the 2 goals, Nicolas!

[EDIT: even sweeter is the fact that no one in my group had him!]

Week 19 Line-up

Here's my starting XI this week, after some 6AM deliberation:

RVP, Kuyt, Anelka
Ronaldo, Gerrard, Downing, Dyer
Christanval, Montgomery, Babayaro
Niemi
---------------
Even though RVP & Kuyt may only get one start, I think they will do the business regardless. I ended up going with Anelka on the theory that he gets 2 starts and as a striker, is more likely to get SOTs and goals than a midfielder. Almost gambled on Garcia instead of Le Sulk, but the fact that he may not start either game scared me off somewhat.

Once more, I am sticking with the "big guns" theory in the MF in the hopes that they produce big-time over 2 games, as I can't expect much at all from my dirt dog defenders.

And, unfortunately, all the top players in my private league selected Niemi, so there is no ground to be made up there. I guess at the price, it represented a good risk for most people. I did find it strange that so many YFF managers in the forums were jumping on the Robert Green bandwagon. Granted, he had a stellar game in keeping an impressive clean sheet against ManU, but I really don't think the Hammers have "turned the corner", and those with him in goal are due for a fall.

Week 19 - Nearly final line-up...sort of...maybe....

OK, here's what I've got at the moment, but I don't love it:

Kuyt, RVP
Gerrard, Ronaldo, Downing, Garcia, Dyer
Montgomery, Christanval, Taylor
Niemi
-------------
Last week, having three "big guns" in the midfield paid off, and I want to stick with that strategy, but it comes at the cost of the defense, which is pretty piss-poor. I especially like Gerrard this week, for the fact he's hitting some form (as the team is), they are hosting a horrible Watford team that leaks goals, and I've not seen him in many YFF rosters. I also like Downing's fixtures this week and next. The inclusion of Ronaldo is self-explanatory. I'm not convinced that Garcia will start both matches, so I wonder about him...Here's my questions - Do I have too many Reds in there, risking rotation? Further to that - is a Garcia --> Anelka switch a good one? Or I am better off plugging in a MF like Ballack and using the extra couple of units to upgrade at least one defender to the likes of Heinze or Gardner? Any other moves that I should consider??

Decisions, decisions...

Week 19 Dilemma

While I plug away on my spreadsheet, manipulating my budget and examining line-up permutations and combinations in anticipation of the double week, it's becoming increasingly apparent that my planned midfield of 3 "big wheels" will not happen this week b/c the strikers I want cost too much, and the GK spot may cost a lot more than the last few weeks, where I held a dirt cheap Kirkland. So, of the following, I would LOVE to take 3, but will end up with just two of them:
Gerrard - 15.xx, WAT, @ BLA
Ronaldo -- 16.xx, @ AST, WIG
Barton -- 14.96, BOL, @ SHE
Downing -- 12.68, CHA, @EVE
Arteta -- 15.66, @ RED, MID
[if Jensen were not a doubt with a hammy, I would consider him as well]

Sonme considerations: I also like Downing's match-ups in week 20: @BLA, SHE; I expect at least Ronaldo to be in nearly everyone's line-up in our group; cheap defenders are not an issue for me..

EDIT: In terms of the GK position, I've decided that I'm almost certainly rolling the dice with Niemi. I am sticking with the notion that for the cost of 7.71, there is somewhat less risk than investing 13.xx for the likes of Lehmann or Reina. But more importantly, the extra units lead to a stronger MF & front line for me. I'm basically considering any positive return from Niemi as a bonus. I can't really seem Fulham giving up too many goals and they have 2 very winnable games against bottom feeders - what more do you want for the price. Hell, it's just as likely that Lehmann or Reina give up at least a goal in one of their games - so if that's the case and going to happen anyway, why spend the extra cash for a potential return that is not that much greater? I guess the risk is in the Cottagers not winning those games (i.e.: the extra -2 for a loss sucks), but Niemi is a great shot-stopper and I expect him to make loads of saves over 2 games, that will translate into some decent points.

Week 19 - Early ideas

Here are some of the picks that appealed to me upon first seeing the fixtures for this week [I've just not been able to post them in a timely fashion, but I swear they were my early, gut picks ;) ].

RVP
McBride
Kuyt
Diouf
Saha
Yakubu

Jensen [watch injury reports...]
Gerrard
Ronaldo
Downing
Barton
Fabregas
--> having at least one or a couple of these MFs is a must.

Eboue/Clichy
Heinze
Riise
Huddlestone
Queudrue

Lehmann
Reina
--> these are the best bets for clean sheets and wins.

Moderately priced / fillers:

Walcott
Viduka
Heskey

Hleb/Rosicky (if fit)
Dyer
Flamini
Pennant/Gonzalez

Meite
Montgomery
Knight
Christanval

Niemi
-----------------
Happy shopping !!

Week 19 - Match-ups

With every team playing twice, there is a wealth of options, so picking strong potential performers who will start both games, or at least get a majority of the minutes, is key. However, with so many games in cramped holiday schedule, it's almost inevitable that most managers will rotate somewhat. So don't be surprised to see some of your picks start on the bench for one game. Defensively, I firmly believe that it is highly unlikely that any team will keep 2 clean sheets over the double week, but some have a batter chance than others. All that said, there are some match-ups I like this week, and will attempt to populate my roster with players from those squads.

Liverpool - WAT, @ BBURN - possibly the best match-ups. Watford is leaky on the road and Rovers have the 2nd most goals allowed at home, plus the Reds are finding form and their shooting boots. However, a "Rafa-rotation" is a distinct possibility, especially with strikers and wide mids. Hosting Watford is probably the best clean sheet bet of all the games.

Arsenal - BBURN, @ WAT - reverse fixtures to Liverpool, but equally appealing. Gunners are a top attacking force and also look good for potential clean sheets. The MF situation is a little dicey, as Rosicky is set to return, while Gay Freddie is out injured and Walcott is pressing for more playing time.

Fulham - WHam, @ CHA - two very winnable derby games for Fulham. Jensen looked a great pick until he missed the last game with a wonky hammy - be wary. Niemi pre-update is cheap.

Chelsea - @ WIG, RED - up against struggling Wigan and recently-returned-to-earth Reading looks good, but most Chelsea player picks are quite pricey.

ManU - @AST, WIG - the EPL's most irresistible attacking force facing two middling teams makes Saha & Ronaldo very hard to ignore; they've been scorint well YFF-wise against every opponent. Of note, Heinze & Vidic are relatively cheap right now.

Portsmouth - SHE, @ WHam - two good looking games, but aside from Kanu (dodgy hammy) and Matty Taylor (very expensive!), it's hard to like any Pompey picks.

Week 19 Schedule

It's another double week, with every team playing twice - an early Christmas present from Yahoo I suppose, LOL ;).

Saturday, 23 December 2006
Arsenal v Blackburn, 15:00
Aston Villa v Man Utd, 15:00
Fulham v West Ham, 12:45
Liverpool v Watford, 15:00
Man City v Bolton, 15:00
Middlesbrough v Charlton, 15:00
Newcastle v Tottenham, 15:00
Portsmouth v Sheff Utd, 15:00
Reading v Everton, 15:00
Wigan v Chelsea, 17:15

Tuesday, 26 December 2006
Blackburn v Liverpool, 15:00
Bolton v Newcastle, 15:00
Chelsea v Reading, 13:00
Everton v Middlesbrough, 15:00
Man Utd v Wigan, 15:00
Sheff Utd v Man City, 15:00
Tottenham v Aston Villa, 13:00
Watford v Arsenal, 17:30
West Ham v Portsmouth, 13:00

Wednesday, 27 December 2006
Charlton v Fulham, 20:00

Week 18 - Early Ideas

After so many easier and clear-cut selections due to the double weeks, it's tougher this time around. But I've got some early ideas (gut picks) and my team is starting to take shape. Here are some of my considerations:

Kuyt - established #1 striker for Rafa, and his 8 attempts at goal yesterday is a good sign. And, oh yeah, Pool play Charlton!

Heskey - the donkey is a bargain at under 7 units currently, and plays well off Camara [who in himself is a decent, more expensive alternative to Heskey]. They face Sheffield, and his reduced cost permits some strong MF moves.

Ronaldo - sizzling right now, always a goal threat it seems and YFF points machine.

Gerrard - been playing better lately, and his pre-update price of 15.xx is very palatable. Of importance - he was taking almost all corners yesterday. Against Charlton, yes please!

Ash Young - Mr. Do-Everything for Watford. Playing up front and wins corners, gets SCs, SOTs - always something to generate points. Could be the first time I select him- a good thing or a hex? LOL

Barton - a home match-up usually means solid home win for City and a good score for Barton.

Heinze - very good price right now (6.38) and should continue at LB as long as Evra is crocked. Gets forward and ManU is always in line for a clean sheet.

Riise/Agger - I'd love to go for one of these guys, but they're quite expensive currently.

Kirkland/Pollitt - Bargain priced, and Sheffield really struggle on the road. [Cudicini, if fit, is another great-looking option against a depleted Everton side, esp. at under $11].

Also interesting: Martins - seems to have found form and hosting Watford, and Berbatov - on fire, but are these guys points-chasing???
------------------------

Week 18 - Schedule

Here is the Week 18 schedule. Finally, back to a single-game week; I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing...

ARS v. POR
AST v. BOL
CHA v. LIV
NUF v. WAT
RED v. BLA
WIG v.SHE

EVE v. CHE
MAC v. TOT
WHAM v. MANU

FUL v. MID

Week 17 - In progress...

I've got 7 players due to feature in the Sunday Chelski-Arsenal clash, so I am really hoping that throwing all my eggs in that double-week basket will pay off. Needless to say, I am anxiously awiating that match, and will be tuning in to watch. [Funny enough, it seems whenever I watch a match that contains YFF players I've selected, they always fail to perform, LOL. I sure hope that's not the case this time out...].

Week 17 - Double Week, Pt. III

OK, yet another double week, but only for 4 teams. See previous post for some player selection ideas.

However, due to various injuries (Henry, Cudicini, Gallas), suspensions (Toure, Heskey, among others) and general uncertainty (A. Cole, Hilario), shopping for players has been tough this week. But here's what I'm going with at the moment:

Sheva - good price, due to score eventually, and with 2 matches, could be the week.
Drogba - form striker.
RVP - chief set-piece taker for the Gunners, nice price.

Lampard - a must have for this week.
Ballack - this guys blow hot-and-cold, hoping for a good week this time out.
Gilberto - Arsenal's best header of the ball; and current PK taker.

Carvalho - good chance for 2 CSs from the Chelsea defenders.
Cole
Ooijer - dirt filler, but may get a clean sheet?
Hall - double gamer at least.

Kirkland - budget move to allow Lamps & Drogba.

Week 17 - Looking Ahead

Yet another double week, the third consecutive! This week, only 4 teams play twice, but luckily Arsenal & Chelsea are among them, so there are some quality picks available for 2 games. I think the strategy is once again to load up on as many DGers are are worthwhile; the same theory applies - twice the games equals twice the chance to score points. And yes, I will be dropping Ronaldo for the Manchester derby in order to accomodate Lampard.

Right off the bat, Chelsea is the obvious top choice. Not having lost at home in 50+ games, with 2 home fixtures, you'd have to like their chances. I'll be steering clear of NUFC as well.

DOUBLE GAME WEEK 17
Wigan = @Middlesbrough 9 Dec 15:00, Arsenal 13 Dec 19:45
Arsenal = @Chelsea 10 Dec 16:00 , @Wigan 13 Dec 19:45
Newcastle = @Blackburn 9 Dec 15:00 , @Chelsea 13 Dec 19:45
Chelsea = Arsenal 10 Dec 16:00 , Newcastle 13 Dec 19:45

Potential picks:

Lampard - yes, expensive, but he's hit his YFF form and regularly records good scores. Almost a guaranteed starter twice, free kick & PK taker. Worth the money.
Cudicini - 2 home games behind arguably the best defense in the EPL - yes please.
Ballack - reasonable cost, but he is one aggravating YFF player. It's either a YC and fouls or a goal with him. But at least he's shown the ability to hit the net.
Drogba - form striker, but a tad pricey now.
Sheva - yet to convince in the EPL, but over 2 games should cover his cost & more.
RVP - solid pick, especially if Henry remains injured.
Camara - perhaps a less-popular selection, but he's bagged some goals recently.
Heskey - low-cost Wigan striking alternative.
Fabregas - Arsenal's most consistent MF and scores reasonably well week in, week out.
Rosicky, Hleb - very patchy YFF players, and occasionally rotated from line-up. FYI -Rosicky started today v. Spurs.
Ashley Cole, Eboue - attacking fullbacks, but costly at $9+ presently.
Baines, Scharner, Boyce, Clichy - all starters.
McCulloch,Essien, Parker, Kilbane - various double-gamers at differing price points.
Lehmann and Kirkland aren't bad GK picks, but with 2 away matches, careful with Jens.

Week 16 Line-up

After much consternation in a difficult-picking double week, here is what I ended up with:

Doyle
Berbatov
Camara

Lennon
Reid
Bentley
Ronaldo

Boyce
Assou-Ekotto
Ooijer

Hahnemann
--------------------------------
I'm hoping that Camara & Hahnemann really come through for me, as almost no one in my private group has them.

I would have liked to gamble on Malbranque, but is recent return from injury and Jol's unpredictable line-up rotation scared me off.